Bitcoin Poised for Longest Period of Sideways Trading in Halving Year History

Bitcoin (BTC) faces the prospect of its longest stretch of sideways trading during a halving year if significant upward movement doesn't occur within the next two weeks.

According to data shared by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, the longest it has previously taken for Bitcoin to begin a strong upward trend after a halving year was 298 days.

In the 2020 halving cycle, Bitcoin delivered its highest return index, peaking at 4.05 points. In contrast, the 2016 cycle saw the lowest return index, reaching only 2.26 points. Even so, 2012 experienced the strongest post-halving start, with Bitcoin achieving a 2.06-point return index after 298 days.

Breaking Historical Trends

This year has seen Bitcoin achieve a significant first, reaching an all-time high prior to the halving event—something unprecedented in Bitcoin's 15-year history. Historically, Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs around 240 days after a halving event, but this year, the price surged to $73,737.94 on March 14, 2024—260 days ahead of the anticipated timeline.

However, multiple corrections since then have tempered this acceleration. According to the analyst and trader known as Rekt Capital, the acceleration period has now been reduced to 60 days, with indications that the market is attempting to shorten this further.

Longest Re-accumulation Period

The current re-accumulation phase where Bitcoin trades within a range before entering a parabolic upward trend has already become the longest since 2016. In past halving cycles, it took 161 days in 2016 and 164 days in 2020 for Bitcoin to begin climbing toward its all-time highs. As of October 11, 2024, Bitcoin has traded sideways for 176 days.

Rekt Capital believes this sideways movement could persist for up to two more months, potentially stretching the re-accumulation period to 236 days. If this happens, it would mark the longest re-accumulation phase in any halving year, signaling the market’s continued efforts to reset the acceleration period before a significant price breakout.